GEORGE LOEWENSTEIN AND COLIN CAMERER KEYNOTE SPEAKERS TIBER, the Tilburg Institute for Behavioral Economics Research is happy to announce the 11 Tiber Symposium on Psychology and Economics, to be held on August 24, 2012. The symposium aims to bring together Economists, Psychologists, Marketing researchers and others who work on Behavioral Decision Making, either in individual or interdependent settings. The symposium will be held at Tilburg th University and consists of two keynotes, a number of parallel sessions with presentations of about 20 to 30 minutes, and a poster session. This…
Decision Science
-
Most Topular Stories
-
11th TIBER Symposium on Psychology and Economics
Decision Science News11 May 2012 | 8:55 pm -
Mann-Ornstein: "It's Even Worse than It Looks"
Brad DeLong18 May 2012 | 2:00 pmJack Citrin writes: UC Berkeley | Institute of Governmental Studies: Special Session of the Research Workshop on American Politics: Please join us Friday, May 18 at noon in the IGS library (109 Moses Hall), for a special session of the Research Workshop on American Politics with authors Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein. As always lunch will be served. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institution, have observed Washington politics for more than 40 years — and they're acclaimed for their carefully nonpartisan… -
Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science15 May 2012 | 3:00 pm5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move… -
Stay In The Conversation
WordPress.com News15 May 2012 | 6:01 pmIt’s now much easier for you and your commenters to keep track of the conversations you’re involved in across WordPress.com. Some recent tests have shown that by subscribing commenters to new comments by default, they are more likely to stay engaged and come back and comment more on your blog. With that knowledge, we’ve changed the default comment following behavior to help you get more conversations going on your blog. We made the initial changes last week and after great feedback from you we just launched an update. Here’s how it works: By default, posting a comment… -
Is losing a customer really worth just $11?
decision-making « WordPress.com Tag Feed10 May 2012 | 2:12 pmMy wife is an avid online shopper. It’s convenient, you can comparison shop, you can do it at 2 in the morning when you can’t sleep, you can buy stuff you wouldn’t be able to find in a store, etc. etc. She has loaded up an Ikea file drawer with a plethora of nail polish this way. We’re talking lots of polish. 100+. She has even developed a good reputation with several smaller-batch polish and makeup makers because of her loyalty and recognition of good product. Several will send her extras and samples with her orders because they recognize a good customer. However,…
-
Decision Science News
-
11th TIBER Symposium on Psychology and Economics
11 May 2012 | 8:55 pmGEORGE LOEWENSTEIN AND COLIN CAMERER KEYNOTE SPEAKERS TIBER, the Tilburg Institute for Behavioral Economics Research is happy to announce the 11 Tiber Symposium on Psychology and Economics, to be held on August 24, 2012. The symposium aims to bring together Economists, Psychologists, Marketing researchers and others who work on Behavioral Decision Making, either in individual or interdependent settings. The symposium will be held at Tilburg th University and consists of two keynotes, a number of parallel sessions with presentations of about 20 to 30 minutes, and a poster session. This… -
We’re moving to Microsoft NYC
3 May 2012 | 9:55 amFOUNDING MEMBERS OF MICROSOFT RESEARCH’S NEW YORK CITY LAB As reported in the New York Times (Microsoft Taps Yahoo Scientists for New York Research Lab) and elsewhere, we’re moving to Microsoft. Your Decision Science News editor will be one of the founding members of a brand new Microsoft Research Lab in New York City. The founding members, so far, are: Sharad Goel web twitter Dan Goldstein web twitter Jake Hofman web twitter John Langford web Dave Pennock web twitter Dave Rothschild web twitter Sid Suri web twitter Duncan Watts web twitter Managing Directors of the lab are:… -
Evil genius ad that uses the psychology of persuasion
25 Apr 2012 | 8:23 amFAMILIARITY-LIKING EFFECTS VIA CAPTCHAS Decision Science News was creating a new account online and had to fill out the above-pictured CAPTCHA (*) to proceed. It’s an ad and a CAPTCHA in one. It gets people to spend time and effort typing the name of the brand. [If you don't know what a CAPTCHA is see Wikipedia, or the Official CAPTCHA Site] That time and effort should serve the advertiser well. Cognitive psychologists know that the longer people spend processing a thing the more likely they are to remember it. By getting you to type the name of the brand, you become more likely to… -
Scarred?
18 Apr 2012 | 4:01 pmSTRANGE WORD IN FRONT PAGE HEADLINES OF TWO NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS ON SAME DAY A friend of Decision Science News awoke in a hotel on April 3rd of this year and found two newspapers outside the door. The Wall Street Journal used the word “scarred” in its front page headline, which was weird enough, but all was made far weirder by the USA Today, which used the same word, also in a front page headline, also above the fold, on the same day. We could overfit and say that “scarred” is the hot buzzword of 2012, or underfit and act as though there’s nothing to this… -
SJDM newsletter ready to download
10 Apr 2012 | 11:45 pmSOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER Just a reminder that the quarterly Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter can be downloaded from the SJDM site: http://sjdm.org/newsletters/ It features jobs, conferences, announcements, and more. Enjoy! Decision Science News / SJDM Newsletter Editor
-
Brad DeLong
-
Mann-Ornstein: "It's Even Worse than It Looks"
18 May 2012 | 2:00 pmJack Citrin writes: UC Berkeley | Institute of Governmental Studies: Special Session of the Research Workshop on American Politics: Please join us Friday, May 18 at noon in the IGS library (109 Moses Hall), for a special session of the Research Workshop on American Politics with authors Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein. As always lunch will be served. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institution, have observed Washington politics for more than 40 years — and they're acclaimed for their carefully nonpartisan… -
Our Corrupt New Old Regime Aristocracy
15 May 2012 | 12:22 pmGary Younge: A web of privilege supports this so-called meritocracy: Shortly after Mitt Romney's failed 2008 campaign for the Republican nomination his son Tagg set up a private equity fund with the campaign's top fundraiser. One of the first donors was his mum, Anne. Next came several of his dad's financial backers. Tagg had no experience in the world of finance, but after two years in the middle of a deep recession the company had netted $244m from just 64 investors. Tagg insists that neither his name nor the fact that his father had made it clear he would run for the presidency again had… -
Supply-Side Effects Are Small...
15 May 2012 | 12:00 pmChristina D. Romer and David H. Romer: The Incentive Effects of Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from the Interwar Era: This paper uses the interwar period in the United States as a laboratory for investigating the incentive effects of changes in marginal income tax rates. Marginal rates changed frequently and drastically in the 1920s and 1930s, and the changes varied greatly across income groups at the top of the income distribution. We examine the effect of these changes on taxable income using time-series/cross-section analysis of data on income and taxes by small slices of the income… -
The Argument for Repealing Dodd-Frank Was...
15 May 2012 | 11:36 am... that Wall Street had learned its lesson that it had to have tight control over its derivatives books, and that it was possible for an investment bank to have tight control over its derivatives book: look at JPMC. Yes, let's look at JPMC. -
The Real Problem with Electing a Former Head of Bain Capital as President Is...
15 May 2012 | 11:31 am....that his entire private-sector experience leads him to want to double down on the idea that getting more money to financiers and executives is job number one. For 30 years the ruling economic policies have been attempting to move more money to financiers and executives, and have done so with considerable success. Yet the faster economic growth that was supposed to follow these increases in income inequality are nowhere to be seen. Redoubling down on failed bets that we have already doubled down on would be a really not-smart thing to do.
-
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
-
Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
15 May 2012 | 3:00 pm5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move… -
A statistical research project: Weeding out the fraudulent citations
15 May 2012 | 8:26 amJohn Mashey points me to a blog post by Phil Davis on “the emergence of a citation cartel.” Davis tells the story: Cell Transplantation is a medical journal published by the Cognizant Communication Corporation of Putnam Valley, New York. In recent years, its impact factor has been growing rapidly. In 2006, it was 3.482 [I think he means "3.5"---ed.]. In 2010, it had almost doubled to 6.204. When you look at which journals cite Cell Transplantation, two journals stand out noticeably: the Medical Science Monitor, and The Scientific World Journal. According to the JCR, neither of… -
Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
14 May 2012 | 4:00 pm4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimates of time trends in religious attendance? Solution to question 3 From yesterday: 3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would… -
I hate to get all Gerd Gigerenzer on you here, but . . .
14 May 2012 | 8:22 amJonathan Cantor points me to an opinion piece by psychologist Reid Hastie, “Our Gift for Good Stories Blinds Us to the Truth.” I have mixed feelings about Hastie’s article. On one hand I do think his point is important. It’s not new to me, but presumably it’s new to many readers of bloomberg.com. I like Hastie’s book (with Robyn Dawes), Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, and I’m predisposed to like anything new that he writes. On the other hand, there’s something about Hastie’s article that bothered me. It seemed a bit smug, as if he… -
Question 3 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
13 May 2012 | 3:00 pm3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would answer such a question honestly.) Solution to question 2 From yesterday: 2. Which of the following are useful goals in a pilot study? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) You can search for statistical significance, then from that decide what to look for in a confirmatory analysis of your full dataset. (b) You…
-
WordPress.com News
-
Stay In The Conversation
15 May 2012 | 6:01 pmIt’s now much easier for you and your commenters to keep track of the conversations you’re involved in across WordPress.com. Some recent tests have shown that by subscribing commenters to new comments by default, they are more likely to stay engaged and come back and comment more on your blog. With that knowledge, we’ve changed the default comment following behavior to help you get more conversations going on your blog. We made the initial changes last week and after great feedback from you we just launched an update. Here’s how it works: By default, posting a comment… -
Look at These Gorgeous Blogs
15 May 2012 | 1:05 pmWe’ve added a user showcase where you can view stunning customizations made by people just like you. From complete redesigns with CSS to adding pizzazz with Custom Fonts to clever use of options like background and header, this showcase will spark your imagination and inspire creativity. Discover details about what each showcase blog is doing with WordPress.com themes and customizations by clicking a thumbnail to see a colophon-style list of credits on the left. We’ve also updated footer links so blog owners can show off the types of customizations they’ve made and visitors can… -
Photo Blogging 101, Part 1
14 May 2012 | 10:00 amSpring is in the air. With the weather warming up, now is a great time to get started on a photo blog. Creating a photo blog is a wonderful introduction to blogging on WordPress.com or an opportunity to refresh your current site. Ready to get started? You can sign up for a new blog right over here. Getting started Photo blogs, sometimes called phlogs, use pictures instead of words. While many photo bloggers choose a type of photo that they want to focus on, such as portraits, others use their photo blog to document their life’s events. Photo blogs come in a variety of styles, including… -
New Themes: Just Desserts and Oxygen
10 May 2012 | 8:11 amHappy Thursday! We’ve added some exciting new themes to our ever-growing collection, and we’re happy to tell you all about them. First out of the oven is…Just Desserts. Yep, that’s a theme! Designed by Andy Rutledge, Just Desserts is a deliciously stylish premium theme that’s perfect for blogs centered on food. With its responsive, single-column layout and unique presentation of images and posts on the front page, Just Desserts gives you a delectable canvas on which your mouthwatering photos and text can really shine — even when viewed on smaller mobile devices… -
Find Friends Who Use WordPress
1 May 2012 | 2:32 pmAre you curious to see how your friends are using WordPress? Give the new and improved Friend Finder a try to connect with your Twitter, Facebook, and Google contacts who have WordPress sites! After authorizing WordPress.com to use your Twitter, Facebook, or Google account to find your friends (don’t worry — none of this account information is saved!) you’ll see a list of people you know who have WordPress sites. Click Follow and each time your friend publishes a new post it will show up in your Reader under Blogs I Follow. If you have multiple blogs, make sure to set the…
-
decision-making « WordPress.com Tag Feed
-
Is losing a customer really worth just $11?
10 May 2012 | 2:12 pmMy wife is an avid online shopper. It’s convenient, you can comparison shop, you can do it at 2 in the morning when you can’t sleep, you can buy stuff you wouldn’t be able to find in a store, etc. etc. She has loaded up an Ikea file drawer with a plethora of nail polish this way. We’re talking lots of polish. 100+. She has even developed a good reputation with several smaller-batch polish and makeup makers because of her loyalty and recognition of good product. Several will send her extras and samples with her orders because they recognize a good customer. However,… -
Don’t always catch the boat
10 May 2012 | 12:04 pmOur lives improve only when we take chances and the first and most difficult risk we can take is to be honest with ourselves. – Walter Anderson What if you went for it? You know, that thing you’ve always wanted to do. The job or career you would be great at. Asking out the person you could have a great relationship with. Connecting with the mentor who could shape your future. Or doing the super awesome trip you’ve always wanted to do. Lot’s of people have ideas and dreams, but the key ingredient which is often missing is action. I was as guilty of this as anyone, and have… -
As I hum "Cat Scratch Fever" to set the mood ...
10 May 2012 | 10:31 am“Lettin’ the cat outta the bag is a whole lot easier ‘n puttin’ it back in. -
mission accomplished
10 May 2012 | 9:20 amThe arbitrary, self-imposed goal of blogging daily (minus weekends & vacations) for one year has been reached! 255 posts 6,385 views all-time 765 tags…good grief. 26 followers – awww shucks, y’all are sweet Now…shall the blog a day continue…? hmmm… Inspiration drives motivation, therefore: inspiration = a blog post Comments welcome. “Only in testing do people discover the nature and depth of their character. People can say anything they want about their values, but when the pressure is on, they discover what their values really… -
Influence is imagination
10 May 2012 | 8:48 amIf buildings and public spaces can influence behavior, so can imagination. In my last blog, I relayed the views of two design experts. They argued that the design of public spaces can influence whether we see each other as neighbors or as intruders in our communities. Imagination or the lack of it also influences our ability to shape the thinking or behavior of others. And it can be worrisome when decision-makers don’t have it. Not too long ago, I suggested to an architect that having a community engagement strategy could eliminate significant hassles in his community development…
-
Dan Ariely
-
It’s not a lie if…
13 May 2012 | 6:00 amIt’s not a lie if…” Based on George Costanza’s advice to Jerry Seinfeld: THE LIST 1. It’s not a lie if you believe it. 2. It’s not a lie if it doesn’t help you. 3. It’s not a lie if it hurts you. 4. It’s not a lie if it helps someone else. 5. It’s not a lie if it doesn’t hurt someone else. 6. It’s not a lie if everyone expects you to lie. 7. It’s not a lie if the other person knows the truth. 8. It’s not a lie if nobody can prove it. 9. It’s not a lie if you don’t get caught. 10. It’s not… -
Turning the Tables: FDR, Tom Sawyer, and me
8 May 2012 | 6:00 amBefore television and the internet, political candidates had two primary means of getting their image out into the public: live appearances and campaign posters. And given the limited reach of the former, posters were a crucial element in political strategy. How else were candidates supposed to project an image of decisiveness and gravitas? So when Franklin D. Roosevelt ran for governor of New York in 1928, his campaign manager had thousands of posters printed with Roosevelt looking at the viewer with serene confidence. There was just one problem. The campaign manager realized they didn’t… -
New Cure All!
1 May 2012 | 6:00 amI’m excited to announce an innovative new therapy that will be released in tandem with my new book The Honest Truth About Dishonesty. I developed it with a team of medical doctors and behavioral economists to treat a broad spectrum of disorders. Cureall (Fixeverything) works to combat the tendency toward self-deception and dishonesty, which, like bacteria in the human body, affect everyone (some more than others). Cureall is indicated for symptoms ranging from nervous headaches (which often result from faking our credentials to employers) to gastrointestinal disorders (a common side effect… -
Finance, Meet Pharma
24 Apr 2012 | 6:00 amWe’ve known for a while that both the processes and products of the pharmaceutical industry need to be regulated. The roots of this regulation stretch back over a century, but it’s been since the Kefauver-Harris Drug Amendments were passed in 1962 in response to thousands of severe birth defects caused by the drug thalidomide that drug manufacturers were for the first time required to prove the effectiveness and safety of their products to the FDA before marketing them. Since that time, we’ve created huge obstacles in terms of time, money, and evidentiary rigor between drug manufactures… -
Celebrating April 15th (17th)
17 Apr 2012 | 6:00 amWhen I first moved to the U.S. for graduate school (which was a long time ago), I was very intrigued by and excited about the tax system and tax day. I envisioned it as a matter of civic engagement, a yearly ritual where citizens reflected on their contribution to the common pool of resources—for better and for worse. I imagined that people would consider the benefits of taxes—being able to fund schools, build roads and bridges, care for the poorest members of the community, and fund the defense of the U.S.—while at the same time watching for wastefulness and protesting against it. …
-
Pearson's Critical Thinking Blog
-
How Can You Train Better Decision Making and Problem Anticipation?
3 May 2012 | 10:03 amEvery day we are forced to make choices. Paper or plastic? Regular or diet soda? Venti White Chocolate Mocha with Vanilla or the non-fat Soy Latte at Starbucks? Buy or rent? Post your resume or stay with your employer? When we are given choices that will result in serious impact on our business, we need to look critically at the alternatives available to us. Recently, I posted 4 of the Problem Solving Techniques that are trained in the Critical Thinking Boot Camp, and today we will take a similar approach with Decision Making and Project Planning/Implementation. Let’s say you… -
Meet the Authors of Now You’re Thinking! at ASTD #astd2012
2 May 2012 | 8:00 amNext week the authors of Now You’re Thinking! (an Amazon.com Bestseller) will be at the American Society for Training & Development’s International conference in Denver. Judy Chartrand, Heather Ishikawa and John Maketa will be in Pearson TalentLens‘ booth (#1134) signing books and taking pictures with attendees. Be sure to stop by and get a FREE copy of Now You’re Thinking! We will also hold a drawing in the booth and 5 randomly chosen individuals will receive a 1-year license to the Critical Thinking University (TalentLens’ first online learning portal for… -
Help Wanted: Need Good Decision-Making Skills
18 Apr 2012 | 8:49 amJob ads are interesting. I’m sure you’ve seen an ad like this: Requirements: 3 to 5 years experience in the field Strong interpersonal and communication skills Excellent analytical and decision-making abilities Ability to manage multiple tasks to completion within deadlines Detail oriented So how do companies realistically measure these competencies? The first two are easy. Look at the candidate’s resume and interview them. Requirements 4 & 5 are harder to measure, but achievable. You can use a behavioral interview question such as “Describe a project that was very… -
Register Now: Critical Thinking Boot Camp- New York City- June 5th-6th
17 Apr 2012 | 8:16 amThe New York Institute of Finance (in conjunction with Executive Development Associates and Pearson TalentLens) is hosting a Critical Thinking Boot Camp in New York City on June 5th and 6th. This Critical Thinking Boot Camp is open to the general public and costs $1,595 per person. Seats are limited, and to register click here. Here is an overview of the Critical Thinking Boot Camp: EDA’s Critical Thinking Boot Camp powered by Pearson’s Watson-Glaser™ Critical Thinking Appraisal is specifically designed to help your workforce understand their critical thinking strengths and… -
Critical Thinking in the Classroom: Turn Liberty Middle School’s Fail into a WIN
23 Mar 2012 | 7:00 amThis week, an 8th grade civics teacher at Liberty Middle School in Fairfax County, VA has come under fire for assigning his students a political research project. What could possibly be wrong with a civics teacher assigning a research project, you ask? Well, students were divided into 4 groups and were each assigned a GOP candidate to investigate. Students were then asked to look for vulnerabilities in each candidate’s personal background and political positions. The students were then asked to take that research and write a strategy paper for how the opposition could use that…
