HANDY COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TURNING NUMBERS INTO MEMORABLE WORDS Two posts ago we showed you the digit sound system for remembering numbers. This week we provide two Python programs (and one R program) to help you create mnemonics. w2num.py – converts every word in the English language to a number find.py – takes a longish number and gives you words that when put together translate into that number using the digit-sound system. If you are not a programmer, or if you are lazy, you can get to the chase and just download the relevant outupt files here wordNum.txt – every word…
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Some code to help you remember numbers
Decision Science News17 Jan 2012 | 6:07 pm -
Liveblogging World War II: January 28, 1942
Brad DeLong28 Jan 2012 | 4:08 amMY DAY by Eleanor Roosevelt: In spite of rather gray looking skies, I left Washington yesterday afternoon, hoping to land in New York about 6:45. But we came down at an unfamiliar airport, and I found we were in Philadelphia and the flight was cancelled. I drove to the station and caught a train almost immediately and reached my house at 9:15, so I might just as well have taken a 5:00 o'clock train out of Washington. I talked to some Army boys on the way over, who had just had their orders. One youngster in a sailor's uniform sat just a few seats ahead of me. When he turned around, I felt… -
Educational monoculture
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science27 Jan 2012 | 8:29 amJohn Cook writes that he’d like to hear more people talk about “educational monoculture.” I don’t actually know John Cook but I enjoy reading his blog, so I feel like the least I can do is to honor his request. I have to admit that I have a bit of a monocultural temperament myself. I have strong feelings about the right and wrong way to do things, and I don’t have much patience for what seems to me to be the wrong way. As a result, I’ve often disparaged or ignored important statistical developments because some small aspect of the new idea didn’t fit… -
TED - The Battle Between Your Present And Future Self
decision-making « WordPress.com Tag Feed24 Jan 2012 | 2:57 amIf you own an iPhone or iPad, do yourself a favour and download the TED app. TED (Technology Entertainment and Design) is a global set of conferences owned by the private non-profit Sapling Foundation, formed to disseminate “ideas worth spreading” and has been operating since 1984. The following TED talk is from Daniel Goldstein. Every day, we make decisions that have good or bad consequences for our future selves. (Can I skip flossing just this one time?) Daniel Goldstein makes tools that help us imagine ourselves over time, so that we make smart choices for Future Us. -
Just Riffing Along
Kevin Hoffberg's Blog15 Jan 2012 | 3:10 pmThrowbacks, cranks, and fans of great sports names everywhere rejoice that there is a guy named Rob Gronkowski kicking butt and taking names playing tight end for a team called the Patriots. What could be more 1950s than that? Okay let’s see. Uncle Mittens works in the private sector from 1976 to 1994 and runs for office from 1994 to 2012. Unless I’m wrong, that’s 18 years pillaging American businesses and another 18 years campaigning on why that makes him the right guy to be the next Senator / Governor / President. How ’bout we call it a tie. Phone call for…
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Decision Science News
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Some code to help you remember numbers
17 Jan 2012 | 6:07 pmHANDY COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TURNING NUMBERS INTO MEMORABLE WORDS Two posts ago we showed you the digit sound system for remembering numbers. This week we provide two Python programs (and one R program) to help you create mnemonics. w2num.py – converts every word in the English language to a number find.py – takes a longish number and gives you words that when put together translate into that number using the digit-sound system. If you are not a programmer, or if you are lazy, you can get to the chase and just download the relevant outupt files here wordNum.txt – every word… -
SJDM newsletter ready to download
12 Jan 2012 | 5:50 pmSOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER Just a reminder that the Quarterly Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter can be downloaded from the SJDM site: http://sjdm.org/newsletters/ Enjoy! -
How to remember numbers
6 Jan 2012 | 1:11 pmRESOLVE TO MEMORIZE NUMBERS WITH THE DIGIT-SOUND METHOD At Decision Science News, we have all kinds of numbers memorized: IP addresses, passport numbers, phone numbers, bank account numbers, logarithms, etc. Once you have stuff like this memorized, you’ll realize how much of a hassle it was to look all this stuff up all the time. Besides, it’s fun. But how is it done? It is done with the digit-sound method, which we learned from Professor Jaap Murre’s neuroMod site at the University of Amsterdam. According to Murre, this amazing method traces back to 1648! You associate a… -
You’ve got the whole world in your portfolio
29 Dec 2011 | 2:14 pmLEARN HOW TO IMPORT WORLD BANK DATA AND INVEST IN THE WHOLE WORLD Click to enlarge The market cap of the countries comprising 90% of the world’s market cap (end 2010) A famous finance professor once told us that good diversification meant holding everything in the world. Fine, but in what proportion? Suppose you could invest in every country in the world. How much would you invest in each? In a market-capitalization weighted index, you’d invest in each country in proportion to the market value of its investments (its “market capitalization”). As seen above, the… -
The umbrella man, dancing Sofitel secruity guards, and People vs Collins
23 Dec 2011 | 11:04 amYOU CAN NEVER THINK UP ALL THE NON-SINISTER EXPLANATIONS FOR THAT FACT This week, DSN suggests watching a couple videos. First, this captivating Errol Morris short, The Umbrella Man, over at the New York Times. Next, this clip of Sofitel Hotel security guards dancing (or is it hugging?) in a backroom shortly after their colleague reported a sexual assault by Dominique-Strauss Kahn. More videos here. Lastly, the famous case of People vs. Collins. A robbery was reported as having been carried out by an African-American man with a beard and mustache in the company of a blond Caucasian woman with…
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Brad DeLong
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Liveblogging World War II: January 28, 1942
28 Jan 2012 | 4:08 amMY DAY by Eleanor Roosevelt: In spite of rather gray looking skies, I left Washington yesterday afternoon, hoping to land in New York about 6:45. But we came down at an unfamiliar airport, and I found we were in Philadelphia and the flight was cancelled. I drove to the station and caught a train almost immediately and reached my house at 9:15, so I might just as well have taken a 5:00 o'clock train out of Washington. I talked to some Army boys on the way over, who had just had their orders. One youngster in a sailor's uniform sat just a few seats ahead of me. When he turned around, I felt… -
Twitterstorm delong: January 27, 2012
27 Jan 2012 | 9:42 pmdelong J. Bradford DeLong Carried Interest Tax Break Exposes Mitt Romney Electability Myth blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/in… 7 minutes ago paullewismoney Paul Lewis Always thought it strange that you motivate rich by throwing money at them, but you motivate poor by taking money away. #hester 19 hours ago Retweeted by delong davidfrum davidfrum Associates confirm to WashPo what was already obvious: Ron Paul has lied & lied about his racist newsletters http://tinyurl.com/8xc7fqg 11 hours ago Retweeted by delong delong J. Bradford DeLong The Debate on Private Equity in 1989, Peter Róna… -
Econ 1: Spring 2012: U.C. Berkeley: Problem Set 2
27 Jan 2012 | 8:05 pmDue at the start of section following the Monday, February 6 lecture: Problem Set 2 Problem Set 2: Demand and Supply; Market Equilibrium J. Bradford DeLong/Lanwei Yang/etc. Econ 1: Spring 2012: U.C. Berkeley Due at first section after Monday, February 6 lecture Suppose that there are four people in the economy who demand yoga lessons: Kautilya (a government economist) with an income of $1000/week, Thasuka Witko (a herder and politician) with an income of $500/week, Buffy Summers (a student at U.C. Sunnydale) with an income of $300/week, and Sappho (a poet) with an income of $600/week. -
Econ 1: U.C. Berkeley: Spring 2012: I Am Sick of Typing in the Long URL for the bspace Website...
27 Jan 2012 | 3:16 pm…so here is a shorter one: http://tinyurl.com/delong-Econ1Sp12 -
What Is the Most Popular TV Show Among 18 Year Old Californians Today?
27 Jan 2012 | 2:14 pmI need examples for my Econ 1 class. Dharma and Greg, Buffy, and Star Trek will no longer cut it...
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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Educational monoculture
27 Jan 2012 | 8:29 amJohn Cook writes that he’d like to hear more people talk about “educational monoculture.” I don’t actually know John Cook but I enjoy reading his blog, so I feel like the least I can do is to honor his request. I have to admit that I have a bit of a monocultural temperament myself. I have strong feelings about the right and wrong way to do things, and I don’t have much patience for what seems to me to be the wrong way. As a result, I’ve often disparaged or ignored important statistical developments because some small aspect of the new idea didn’t fit… -
Suggested resolution of the Bem paradox
26 Jan 2012 | 8:11 amThere has been an increasing discussion about the proliferation of flawed research in psychology and medicine, with some landmark events being John Ioannides’s article, “Why most published research findings are false” (according to Google Scholar, cited 973 times since its appearance in 2005), the scandals of Marc Hauser and Diederik Stapel, two leading psychology professors who resigned after disclosures of scientific misconduct, and Daryl Bem’s dubious recent paper on ESP, published to much fanfare in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, one of the top… -
Chris Schmid on Evidence Based Medicine
25 Jan 2012 | 8:15 amChris Schmid is a statistician at New England Medical Center who is an expert on evidence-based medicine. I invited him to present an introductory overview lecture on the topic at last year’s Joint Statistical Meetings, and here are his slides. All 123 of them. I don’t know how he expected to go though all of these in an hour. You could teach a semester-long course based on this material. Good stuff, I recommend you all read it. -
Difficulties in publishing non-replications of implausible findings
24 Jan 2012 | 8:57 amEric Tassone points me to this news article by Christopher Shea on the challenges of debunking ESP. Shea writes: Earlier this year, a major psychology journal published a paper suggesting that there was some evidence for “pre-cognition,” a form of ESP. Stuart Ritchie, a doctoral student at the University of Edinburgh, is part of a team that tried, but failed, to replicate those results. Here, he tells the Chronicle of Higher Education’s Tom Bartlett about the difficulties he’s had getting the results published. Several journals told the team they wouldn’t publish a study that… -
Fight! (also a bit of reminiscence at the end)
23 Jan 2012 | 8:02 amMartin Lindquist and Michael Sobel published a fun little article in Neuroimage on models and assumptions for causal inference with intermediate outcomes. As their subtitle indicates (“A response to the comments on our comment”), this is a topic of some controversy. Lindquist and Sobel write: Our original comment (Lindquist and Sobel, 2011) made explicit the types of assumptions neuroimaging researchers are making when directed graphical models (DGMs), which include certain types of structural equation models (SEMs), are used to estimate causal effects. When these assumptions,…
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decision-making « WordPress.com Tag Feed
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TED - The Battle Between Your Present And Future Self
24 Jan 2012 | 2:57 amIf you own an iPhone or iPad, do yourself a favour and download the TED app. TED (Technology Entertainment and Design) is a global set of conferences owned by the private non-profit Sapling Foundation, formed to disseminate “ideas worth spreading” and has been operating since 1984. The following TED talk is from Daniel Goldstein. Every day, we make decisions that have good or bad consequences for our future selves. (Can I skip flossing just this one time?) Daniel Goldstein makes tools that help us imagine ourselves over time, so that we make smart choices for Future Us. -
The Art of Decision Making
24 Jan 2012 | 1:00 amHave you ever regretted making a decision? Or thought you could make better decisions? Have you ever -
Deciding To Be Stress Free
23 Jan 2012 | 9:29 pmWhen trying to build a content, fulfilled and stress free life a useful skill to develop is the ability to make decisions. Deciding on a course of action, choosing an option can free up a ton of mental energy. When you choose a path you will feel a weight come of your shoulders. We are living at a time where we are under a flood of options. Many options can give you a sense of freedom if you know how to make decisions. They can also be a ball and chain holding you keeping you prisoner. Check out the book The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less by Barry Schwartz. Here is the TedTalks video. In… -
Chain Store Planning: The Missing Link
23 Jan 2012 | 7:30 pmThe 4 P’s of Marketing (Product, Price, Promotion, Place) have been around since the 1950’s. For chain store operators, PLACE is more critical than for other types of businesses. A better term for PLACE is DISTRIBUTION, but of course it starts with “D,” so it never made it into the 4 P’s. DISTRIBUTION is a term used to describe what is commonly called “the supply chain” and the facilities involved in distribution are “the supply chain network.” These facilities include factories, distribution centers, and retail stores. There has been a great increase in the use of… -
Is Pursuing Your Passion A Viable Game Plan?
23 Jan 2012 | 1:46 pm“The road to happiness lies in two simple principles: find what it is that interests you and t
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Kevin Hoffberg's Blog
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Just Riffing Along
15 Jan 2012 | 3:10 pmThrowbacks, cranks, and fans of great sports names everywhere rejoice that there is a guy named Rob Gronkowski kicking butt and taking names playing tight end for a team called the Patriots. What could be more 1950s than that? Okay let’s see. Uncle Mittens works in the private sector from 1976 to 1994 and runs for office from 1994 to 2012. Unless I’m wrong, that’s 18 years pillaging American businesses and another 18 years campaigning on why that makes him the right guy to be the next Senator / Governor / President. How ’bout we call it a tie. Phone call for… -
Happy Birthday Elvis
8 Jan 2012 | 3:01 pmAttention numerology fans, Elvis would have been 77 today. In a weird coincidence, he died in 1977. Even weirder, during the 59 scheduled concert dates (9-5=2, 9-2 =7) in 1977, he wore the Mexican Sundial costume all but 17 times. And the world was created in 7 days (if you count God’s “personal day”). No wonder they called him The King! It’s true, you can look it up. And a warm welcome back to the Somali Pirates. Just when we thought you had abandoned the global stage back you roar with a fabulous guest turn on “When Navy Corpsman Speak Urdu.” To those… -
Bet You Can’t Watch it Just Once
30 Dec 2011 | 12:22 pmThis is just magical. This is just plain fun! -
Oh What a Year it Was
28 Dec 2011 | 5:36 pmNo highly selective annual roundup could be complete without noting that last night the Portland Trailblazers, led by Jamal Crawford, Gerald Wallace, Marcus Camby, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Nicolas Batum defeated the Sacto Kings, led by DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, and some other guys . . . leading me to wonder, was it something in the water? Marcus 1, Marcus 2, LeMarcus and DeMarcus. David Sterns it’s Dr. Seuss on line 2. In January, in a weird bit of symmetry, a food cart vendor named Mohamed (there’s a big friggin surprise) lit himself on fire launching what… -
Some Things Are Just Too Good Not To Share
26 Dec 2011 | 12:49 pmWhat is it about the holiday season that brings out the “share” in people? In that spirit, enjoy this valuable and instructive video . . . And for those who love Scrubs, and who doesn’t, here are the fellas crooning a holiday favorite . . .
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Dan Ariely
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Men, Women, and Pain
28 Jan 2012 | 5:00 amIf you’ve been to the doctor’s office recently with any kind of complaint, it’s likely you were ask to rate the pain you were experiencing on a scale from 0 to 10 (being the worst pain possible). Well, a group of researchers from the Stanford University School of Medicine recently analyzed the self-reported pain measurements from 11,000 medical records from 2007-2010 and discovered something surprising: women report greater levels of pain than men for the same injuries and ailments. In The Upside of Irrationality, I briefly discussed a disagreement I had with a professor about… -
Announcing My Third Book
24 Jan 2012 | 5:00 amMy next book is almost ready and I would like to thank everyone for your wonderful suggestions and feedback on the name. And the winner is: The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, How We Lie to Everyone–Especially Ourselves. The publication date is June 5th — more info to follow -
PoorQuality: Inequality
17 Jan 2012 | 7:50 amCall for Artists to respond to research on inequality Hosted by Dan Ariely and the Center for Advanced Hindsight Artists from around the world are invited to attend a discussion on social and economic inequality (from the lab that hosted the “Creative Dishonesty” project), on Wednesday, February 22nd at 7 PM EST. (Artists who do not live within driving distance of Durham, NC will watch the forum streaming live online.) Interested artists are to RSVP to the curator, Catherine Howard, at creativedishonesty@gmail.com by Tuesday, February 21st at 9 PM. After the forum, artists interested… -
Special Deals at Whole Foods
5 Jan 2012 | 5:00 amJared Wolfe, one of the students working with me, took the following pictures at Whole Foods a few days ago. They illustrate amazing creativity in defining what the term “a deal” means. 1) Regular price is $1.99 and the Sale price is? Two of the same item for $5 — which according to Whole Foods’ quick calculation is a savings of $1.02. Amazing. 2) Regular price is $3.99 and the Sale price is? $3.99 — thankfully this time they did not add any amount to the savings. What I am wondering is how many people just look for the orange tags and the Sale signs… -
Refueling Options at Hertz
30 Dec 2011 | 5:00 amI got this picture this week. What is interesting about this price menu is that the “Fuel and Service,” priced at $9.29, is so off the scale (and so outrageous) that perhaps it makes the pre-paid option of $3.65 look attractive. After all it is about 1/3 the price of the Fuel and Service.
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Pearson's Critical Thinking Blog
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Wishful Thinking vs. Cynical Thinking: Which is Better?
27 Jan 2012 | 2:25 pmLet’s first start by defining Wishful vs. Cynical Thinking. Wishful Thinking (according to Wikipedia) is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality or reality. Cynical Thinking (which is NOT the same thing as Critical Thinking) is thinking that is predisposed to doubt and lack of trust. Cynical Thinkers have a pessimstic view when problem solving and decision making. The idea of Wishful vs. Cynical Thinking came to mind for me this week when a friend told me he thinks he has a coin… -
New Study Finds Link Between Critical Thinking and Unemployment
26 Jan 2012 | 10:55 amIn January of 2011 we told you about the new book “Academically Adrift” which followed 2,322 students during their 4 years in college and found that these students are not improving their critical thinking skills. In fact, in the first 2 years, 45% of students showed no improvement in critical thinking skills, and after 4 years 36% still showed no improvement. This week, a follow-up report was released that showed the long term effects of this critical thinking crisis. The study (“Documenting Uncertain Times: Post-graduate Transition of the Academically Adrift Cohort”)… -
Critical Thinking Interview Questions
25 Jan 2012 | 2:12 pmKrishnan Anantharaman from the Wall Street Journal wrote an interesting article about the new trend of asking questions designed to elicit critical thinking abilities in candidates. Initially, I was pleased to hear that recruiters are trying to measure critical thinking ability given the fact that only 28% of college graduates are rated as having excellent critical thinking skills yet it’s the #1 workplace skill. However, the types of questions being used by interviewers really caught my eye. Here are a few examples from the article: “What did you play with as a child?” “If you… -
Top Jobs for Critical Thinking
24 Jan 2012 | 1:03 pmNot every job requires you to be a great critical thinker, but most do! Of course doctors and judges need above-average critical thinking and problem solving skills, but did you know critical thinking is just as important for archeologists and school counselors? Athletic trainers, sales managers, and real estate appraisers also need to know how to evaluate both sides of an issue, draw logical conclusions, and make good decisions. We created this fun critical thinking infographic to illustrate the top jobs requiring critical thinking skills. Students, job seekers, and career changers…… -
Just Teach Me To Think, Please!
23 Jan 2012 | 10:16 amOne complaint I have about my MBA program is that it felt like a bunch of disconnected courses and assignments that didn’t gel together (at times). I wanted more help “seeing the big picture” that drives success. For example, how companies choose an HR strategy to win talent in their specific industry and why. Or which marketing techniques are best at promoting a new product vs an existing product. In essence, I wanted help thinking about my options, not necessarily learning each one. In the book Rethinking the MBA: Business Education at a Crossroads, the authors offer eight unmet…
