GEORGE LOEWENSTEIN AND COLIN CAMERER KEYNOTE SPEAKERS TIBER, the Tilburg Institute for Behavioral Economics Research is happy to announce the 11 Tiber Symposium on Psychology and Economics, to be held on August 24, 2012. The symposium aims to bring together Economists, Psychologists, Marketing researchers and others who work on Behavioral Decision Making, either in individual or interdependent settings. The symposium will be held at Tilburg th University and consists of two keynotes, a number of parallel sessions with presentations of about 20 to 30 minutes, and a poster session. This…
Decision Science
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11th TIBER Symposium on Psychology and Economics
Decision Science News11 May 2012 | 8:55 pm -
Mann-Ornstein: "It's Even Worse than It Looks"
Brad DeLong18 May 2012 | 2:00 pmJack Citrin writes: UC Berkeley | Institute of Governmental Studies: Special Session of the Research Workshop on American Politics: Please join us Friday, May 18 at noon in the IGS library (109 Moses Hall), for a special session of the Research Workshop on American Politics with authors Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein. As always lunch will be served. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institution, have observed Washington politics for more than 40 years — and they're acclaimed for their carefully nonpartisan… -
Wikipedia author confronts Ed Wegman
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science16 May 2012 | 8:32 amWegman: “It’s not reprinted 100 percent like you had it.” Wikipedia guy: “No, you added another paragraph at the end and you changed the headline. . . . You even copied the typos that I’ve corrected on my website. It was taken verbatim and reprinted in your paper.” The original author got a check for $500 but, unfortunately, no free subscription to “Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics” (a $1400-$2800 value). P.S. To those who think I’m being mean to Wegman: I haven’t yet heard that he’s apologized to the… -
Stay In The Conversation
WordPress.com News15 May 2012 | 6:01 pmIt’s now much easier for you and your commenters to keep track of the conversations you’re involved in across WordPress.com. Some recent tests have shown that by subscribing commenters to new comments by default, they are more likely to stay engaged and come back and comment more on your blog. With that knowledge, we’ve changed the default comment following behavior to help you get more conversations going on your blog. We made the initial changes last week and after great feedback from you we just launched an update. Here’s how it works: By default, posting a comment… -
End of life care for patients following acute stroke
decision-making « WordPress.com Tag Feed11 May 2012 | 7:00 amSource: Nursing Standard 2012 Mar; 26 (27): 42-46 Follow this link for abstract Date of publication: March 2012 Publication type: Journal Article In a nutshell: This article discusses the issue of end of life care for acute stroke patients. The study looks at best practice in end of life care, including symptom management, nutrition and hydration, decision making and spiritual and religious care. Length of publication: 5 pages Some important notes: Please contact your local NHS library for the full text of this article. Follow this link to find your local NHS library.
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Decision Science News
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11th TIBER Symposium on Psychology and Economics
11 May 2012 | 8:55 pmGEORGE LOEWENSTEIN AND COLIN CAMERER KEYNOTE SPEAKERS TIBER, the Tilburg Institute for Behavioral Economics Research is happy to announce the 11 Tiber Symposium on Psychology and Economics, to be held on August 24, 2012. The symposium aims to bring together Economists, Psychologists, Marketing researchers and others who work on Behavioral Decision Making, either in individual or interdependent settings. The symposium will be held at Tilburg th University and consists of two keynotes, a number of parallel sessions with presentations of about 20 to 30 minutes, and a poster session. This… -
We’re moving to Microsoft NYC
3 May 2012 | 9:55 amFOUNDING MEMBERS OF MICROSOFT RESEARCH’S NEW YORK CITY LAB As reported in the New York Times (Microsoft Taps Yahoo Scientists for New York Research Lab) and elsewhere, we’re moving to Microsoft. Your Decision Science News editor will be one of the founding members of a brand new Microsoft Research Lab in New York City. The founding members, so far, are: Sharad Goel web twitter Dan Goldstein web twitter Jake Hofman web twitter John Langford web Dave Pennock web twitter Dave Rothschild web twitter Sid Suri web twitter Duncan Watts web twitter Managing Directors of the lab are:… -
Evil genius ad that uses the psychology of persuasion
25 Apr 2012 | 8:23 amFAMILIARITY-LIKING EFFECTS VIA CAPTCHAS Decision Science News was creating a new account online and had to fill out the above-pictured CAPTCHA (*) to proceed. It’s an ad and a CAPTCHA in one. It gets people to spend time and effort typing the name of the brand. [If you don't know what a CAPTCHA is see Wikipedia, or the Official CAPTCHA Site] That time and effort should serve the advertiser well. Cognitive psychologists know that the longer people spend processing a thing the more likely they are to remember it. By getting you to type the name of the brand, you become more likely to… -
Scarred?
18 Apr 2012 | 4:01 pmSTRANGE WORD IN FRONT PAGE HEADLINES OF TWO NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS ON SAME DAY A friend of Decision Science News awoke in a hotel on April 3rd of this year and found two newspapers outside the door. The Wall Street Journal used the word “scarred” in its front page headline, which was weird enough, but all was made far weirder by the USA Today, which used the same word, also in a front page headline, also above the fold, on the same day. We could overfit and say that “scarred” is the hot buzzword of 2012, or underfit and act as though there’s nothing to this… -
SJDM newsletter ready to download
10 Apr 2012 | 11:45 pmSOCIETY FOR JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER Just a reminder that the quarterly Society for Judgment and Decision Making newsletter can be downloaded from the SJDM site: http://sjdm.org/newsletters/ It features jobs, conferences, announcements, and more. Enjoy! Decision Science News / SJDM Newsletter Editor
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Brad DeLong
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Mann-Ornstein: "It's Even Worse than It Looks"
18 May 2012 | 2:00 pmJack Citrin writes: UC Berkeley | Institute of Governmental Studies: Special Session of the Research Workshop on American Politics: Please join us Friday, May 18 at noon in the IGS library (109 Moses Hall), for a special session of the Research Workshop on American Politics with authors Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein. As always lunch will be served. Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institution, have observed Washington politics for more than 40 years — and they're acclaimed for their carefully nonpartisan… -
Gideon Rachman on How Austerity Is Europe's Best Road Forward: Hoisted from Comments
16 May 2012 | 12:13 pmGideon Rachman: Comments - Brad DeLong | TypePad: Hi Brad. Gideon here: Sorry to have delivered an inadvertent punch to the stomach. But anyone who prefaces a criticism of me by saying that I am "highly intelligent" stays in my good books. As for Paul K's suggestion that I am responding to a subtler form of peer pressure. Possibly, but its too subtle for me to notice. If anything, the peer pressure runs the other way. Martin Wolf, who I greatly respect, and who is much more Keynesian than me, has the office next door and he regularly tells me I'm crazy. I won't rehearse the whole argument… -
Mark Thoma: Has the Fed Learned Its Lesson?
16 May 2012 | 11:59 amMark Thoma: Economist's View: Has the Fed Learned Its Lesson?: I have been pretty critical of the Fed throughout the crisis. I still don't think policy is aggressive enough, and the Fed has been behind the developments in the economy due to its propensity to see green shoots that aren't actually there. But at least it's leaning in the right direction…. Chairman Bernanke said the monetary policy committee does "not anticipate further substantial declines in the unemployment rate over the course of this year. Looking beyond this year, FOMC participants expect the unemployment rate to continue… -
Daniel Davies Watches the Hayekian Yahoos Attack the Late Tony Judt
16 May 2012 | 7:40 amAnd he snarks: Judt and Hayek: I would certainly be happy if I was generally regarded as being as dishonest and as ignorant as Tony Judt. After achieving that, I think I’d try to become as poor as Donald Trump and as ugly as Jude Law. And: Judt and Hayek: [R]eally, the only sensible thing for Hayekians to do with “Road to Serfdom” is to treat it like Marx and “the tendency of the rate of profit to fall”, or Einstein and “god doesn’t play dice”, or Keynes and eugenics or Heidegger and “more or less everything” and just say that it was a clear error but obviously doesn’t… -
Our Corrupt New Old Regime Aristocracy
15 May 2012 | 12:22 pmGary Younge: A web of privilege supports this so-called meritocracy: Shortly after Mitt Romney's failed 2008 campaign for the Republican nomination his son Tagg set up a private equity fund with the campaign's top fundraiser. One of the first donors was his mum, Anne. Next came several of his dad's financial backers. Tagg had no experience in the world of finance, but after two years in the middle of a deep recession the company had netted $244m from just 64 investors. Tagg insists that neither his name nor the fact that his father had made it clear he would run for the presidency again had…
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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Wikipedia author confronts Ed Wegman
16 May 2012 | 8:32 amWegman: “It’s not reprinted 100 percent like you had it.” Wikipedia guy: “No, you added another paragraph at the end and you changed the headline. . . . You even copied the typos that I’ve corrected on my website. It was taken verbatim and reprinted in your paper.” The original author got a check for $500 but, unfortunately, no free subscription to “Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics” (a $1400-$2800 value). P.S. To those who think I’m being mean to Wegman: I haven’t yet heard that he’s apologized to the… -
Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
15 May 2012 | 3:00 pm5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move… -
A statistical research project: Weeding out the fraudulent citations
15 May 2012 | 8:26 amJohn Mashey points me to a blog post by Phil Davis on “the emergence of a citation cartel.” Davis tells the story: Cell Transplantation is a medical journal published by the Cognizant Communication Corporation of Putnam Valley, New York. In recent years, its impact factor has been growing rapidly. In 2006, it was 3.482 [I think he means "3.5"---ed.]. In 2010, it had almost doubled to 6.204. When you look at which journals cite Cell Transplantation, two journals stand out noticeably: the Medical Science Monitor, and The Scientific World Journal. According to the JCR, neither of… -
Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
14 May 2012 | 4:00 pm4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimates of time trends in religious attendance? Solution to question 3 From yesterday: 3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would… -
I hate to get all Gerd Gigerenzer on you here, but . . .
14 May 2012 | 8:22 amJonathan Cantor points me to an opinion piece by psychologist Reid Hastie, “Our Gift for Good Stories Blinds Us to the Truth.” I have mixed feelings about Hastie’s article. On one hand I do think his point is important. It’s not new to me, but presumably it’s new to many readers of bloomberg.com. I like Hastie’s book (with Robyn Dawes), Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, and I’m predisposed to like anything new that he writes. On the other hand, there’s something about Hastie’s article that bothered me. It seemed a bit smug, as if he…
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WordPress.com News
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Stay In The Conversation
15 May 2012 | 6:01 pmIt’s now much easier for you and your commenters to keep track of the conversations you’re involved in across WordPress.com. Some recent tests have shown that by subscribing commenters to new comments by default, they are more likely to stay engaged and come back and comment more on your blog. With that knowledge, we’ve changed the default comment following behavior to help you get more conversations going on your blog. We made the initial changes last week and after great feedback from you we just launched an update. Here’s how it works: By default, posting a comment… -
Look at These Gorgeous Blogs
15 May 2012 | 1:05 pmWe’ve added a user showcase where you can view stunning customizations made by people just like you. From complete redesigns with CSS to adding pizzazz with Custom Fonts to clever use of options like background and header, this showcase will spark your imagination and inspire creativity. Discover details about what each showcase blog is doing with WordPress.com themes and customizations by clicking a thumbnail to see a colophon-style list of credits on the left. We’ve also updated footer links so blog owners can show off the types of customizations they’ve made and visitors can… -
Photo Blogging 101, Part 1
14 May 2012 | 10:00 amSpring is in the air. With the weather warming up, now is a great time to get started on a photo blog. Creating a photo blog is a wonderful introduction to blogging on WordPress.com or an opportunity to refresh your current site. Ready to get started? You can sign up for a new blog right over here. Getting started Photo blogs, sometimes called phlogs, use pictures instead of words. While many photo bloggers choose a type of photo that they want to focus on, such as portraits, others use their photo blog to document their life’s events. Photo blogs come in a variety of styles, including… -
New Themes: Just Desserts and Oxygen
10 May 2012 | 8:11 amHappy Thursday! We’ve added some exciting new themes to our ever-growing collection, and we’re happy to tell you all about them. First out of the oven is…Just Desserts. Yep, that’s a theme! Designed by Andy Rutledge, Just Desserts is a deliciously stylish premium theme that’s perfect for blogs centered on food. With its responsive, single-column layout and unique presentation of images and posts on the front page, Just Desserts gives you a delectable canvas on which your mouthwatering photos and text can really shine — even when viewed on smaller mobile devices… -
Find Friends Who Use WordPress
1 May 2012 | 2:32 pmAre you curious to see how your friends are using WordPress? Give the new and improved Friend Finder a try to connect with your Twitter, Facebook, and Google contacts who have WordPress sites! After authorizing WordPress.com to use your Twitter, Facebook, or Google account to find your friends (don’t worry — none of this account information is saved!) you’ll see a list of people you know who have WordPress sites. Click Follow and each time your friend publishes a new post it will show up in your Reader under Blogs I Follow. If you have multiple blogs, make sure to set the…
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decision-making « WordPress.com Tag Feed
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End of life care for patients following acute stroke
11 May 2012 | 7:00 amSource: Nursing Standard 2012 Mar; 26 (27): 42-46 Follow this link for abstract Date of publication: March 2012 Publication type: Journal Article In a nutshell: This article discusses the issue of end of life care for acute stroke patients. The study looks at best practice in end of life care, including symptom management, nutrition and hydration, decision making and spiritual and religious care. Length of publication: 5 pages Some important notes: Please contact your local NHS library for the full text of this article. Follow this link to find your local NHS library. -
Thinking in a Foreign Language Makes Decisions More Rational
11 May 2012 | 4:38 am‘Would you make the same decisions in a foreign language?’ To judge a risk more clearly, -
Check Your Logic Before Making Decisions
11 May 2012 | 4:00 amMr. Spock never used faulty logic, but the rest of us should probably double-check our logic on important decisions. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Our minds can play tricks on us. I literally see it every day. We all can make some very irrational decisions based on shaky logic. I was guilty of it yesterday so that got me thinking about some of the shaky logic that I have seen managers use. Here are a few examples that popped into my mind, but I am curious to see if you have any to add to the list: Polar Extremes: Things are either great or they are absolutely horrible. An employee’s… -
He's Right
10 May 2012 | 9:04 pmMy brothers don’t read my blog or I wouldn’t dare to put this in writing … but my brother Jim was right. Years and years ago, he told me I was not irreplacable. I don’t recall the full conversation, but we must have been talking about some work situation in which I found myself. I can’t think of another context for the analogy he used. He told me to think of a bucket of water. He said when I put my hand in a bucket of water, it doesn’t change (which made no sense to me, because putting my hand in a bucket of water changes the water level), and when I… -
don’t organize it
10 May 2012 | 6:09 pmAlmost every day someone tells me, proudly, that he has 20 years’ worth of paycheck stubs, but they’re all organized in file cabinets. Or she has every piece of artwork her kids ever made, but they’re all organized in boxes. What I want to say to these people is this: Not everything merits being “organized.” Some things don’t even need to be kept. And they certainly don’t need to be alphabetized, put in reverse chronological order or sorted by color. Before you spend money on bins, boxes or furniture to allow you to organize your stuff, consider why you’re holding onto it. If…
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Dan Ariely
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The Facebook IPO: A Note to Mark Zuckerberg; or, With “Friends” Like Morgan Stanley, Who Needs Enemies?
16 May 2012 | 9:22 amI just received this letter from a friend in the banking industry. He prefers to remain anonymous (you’ll see why soon enough). Dear Mark, There’s been a lot of ballyhoo recently about your IPO and your choice of investment bankers. Indeed, a war was fought by the banks to win your “deal of the decade.” As reported in the press, the competition was so intense banks slashed their fees in order to win your business. Facebook is “only” paying a 1% “commission” for its IPO rather than the 3% typically charged by the banks. Congratulations, Mr. Zuckerberg! On the… -
It’s not a lie if…
13 May 2012 | 6:00 amIt’s not a lie if…” Based on George Costanza’s advice to Jerry Seinfeld: THE LIST 1. It’s not a lie if you believe it. 2. It’s not a lie if it doesn’t help you. 3. It’s not a lie if it hurts you. 4. It’s not a lie if it helps someone else. 5. It’s not a lie if it doesn’t hurt someone else. 6. It’s not a lie if everyone expects you to lie. 7. It’s not a lie if the other person knows the truth. 8. It’s not a lie if nobody can prove it. 9. It’s not a lie if you don’t get caught. 10. It’s not… -
Turning the Tables: FDR, Tom Sawyer, and me
8 May 2012 | 6:00 amBefore television and the internet, political candidates had two primary means of getting their image out into the public: live appearances and campaign posters. And given the limited reach of the former, posters were a crucial element in political strategy. How else were candidates supposed to project an image of decisiveness and gravitas? So when Franklin D. Roosevelt ran for governor of New York in 1928, his campaign manager had thousands of posters printed with Roosevelt looking at the viewer with serene confidence. There was just one problem. The campaign manager realized they didn’t… -
New Cure All!
1 May 2012 | 6:00 amI’m excited to announce an innovative new therapy that will be released in tandem with my new book The Honest Truth About Dishonesty. I developed it with a team of medical doctors and behavioral economists to treat a broad spectrum of disorders. Cureall (Fixeverything) works to combat the tendency toward self-deception and dishonesty, which, like bacteria in the human body, affect everyone (some more than others). Cureall is indicated for symptoms ranging from nervous headaches (which often result from faking our credentials to employers) to gastrointestinal disorders (a common side effect… -
Finance, Meet Pharma
24 Apr 2012 | 6:00 amWe’ve known for a while that both the processes and products of the pharmaceutical industry need to be regulated. The roots of this regulation stretch back over a century, but it’s been since the Kefauver-Harris Drug Amendments were passed in 1962 in response to thousands of severe birth defects caused by the drug thalidomide that drug manufacturers were for the first time required to prove the effectiveness and safety of their products to the FDA before marketing them. Since that time, we’ve created huge obstacles in terms of time, money, and evidentiary rigor between drug manufactures…
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Pearson's Critical Thinking Blog
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How Can You Train Better Decision Making and Problem Anticipation?
3 May 2012 | 10:03 amEvery day we are forced to make choices. Paper or plastic? Regular or diet soda? Venti White Chocolate Mocha with Vanilla or the non-fat Soy Latte at Starbucks? Buy or rent? Post your resume or stay with your employer? When we are given choices that will result in serious impact on our business, we need to look critically at the alternatives available to us. Recently, I posted 4 of the Problem Solving Techniques that are trained in the Critical Thinking Boot Camp, and today we will take a similar approach with Decision Making and Project Planning/Implementation. Let’s say you… -
Meet the Authors of Now You’re Thinking! at ASTD #astd2012
2 May 2012 | 8:00 amNext week the authors of Now You’re Thinking! (an Amazon.com Bestseller) will be at the American Society for Training & Development’s International conference in Denver. Judy Chartrand, Heather Ishikawa and John Maketa will be in Pearson TalentLens‘ booth (#1134) signing books and taking pictures with attendees. Be sure to stop by and get a FREE copy of Now You’re Thinking! We will also hold a drawing in the booth and 5 randomly chosen individuals will receive a 1-year license to the Critical Thinking University (TalentLens’ first online learning portal for… -
Help Wanted: Need Good Decision-Making Skills
18 Apr 2012 | 8:49 amJob ads are interesting. I’m sure you’ve seen an ad like this: Requirements: 3 to 5 years experience in the field Strong interpersonal and communication skills Excellent analytical and decision-making abilities Ability to manage multiple tasks to completion within deadlines Detail oriented So how do companies realistically measure these competencies? The first two are easy. Look at the candidate’s resume and interview them. Requirements 4 & 5 are harder to measure, but achievable. You can use a behavioral interview question such as “Describe a project that was very… -
Register Now: Critical Thinking Boot Camp- New York City- June 5th-6th
17 Apr 2012 | 8:16 amThe New York Institute of Finance (in conjunction with Executive Development Associates and Pearson TalentLens) is hosting a Critical Thinking Boot Camp in New York City on June 5th and 6th. This Critical Thinking Boot Camp is open to the general public and costs $1,595 per person. Seats are limited, and to register click here. Here is an overview of the Critical Thinking Boot Camp: EDA’s Critical Thinking Boot Camp powered by Pearson’s Watson-Glaser™ Critical Thinking Appraisal is specifically designed to help your workforce understand their critical thinking strengths and… -
Critical Thinking in the Classroom: Turn Liberty Middle School’s Fail into a WIN
23 Mar 2012 | 7:00 amThis week, an 8th grade civics teacher at Liberty Middle School in Fairfax County, VA has come under fire for assigning his students a political research project. What could possibly be wrong with a civics teacher assigning a research project, you ask? Well, students were divided into 4 groups and were each assigned a GOP candidate to investigate. Students were then asked to look for vulnerabilities in each candidate’s personal background and political positions. The students were then asked to take that research and write a strategy paper for how the opposition could use that…
